Weekly Crypto Recap (September 22–29, 2025)

crypto news review weekly recap September 22–29, 2025: 

This week’s crypto price action was driven by shifting ETF flows, evolving regulation, and continued institutional moves. Major spot Bitcoin ETF outflows paused a multi-week rally, while Ethereum hovered ahead of key upgrades. U.S. regulators pushed ahead with ETF approvals even as tariff chatter from Washington stoked volatility. DeFi and NFT sectors saw both explosive launches and security scares. In sum, a volatile mix of technical buy signals and regulatory headlines moved markets. Can Bitcoin’s rally hold, or will regulation spoil the momentum?

Top Crypto News Headlines

• Bitcoin ETF flows: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $902.5M net outflows for the week ending four weeks of steady inflows.
• Ethereum upgrades: ETH markets were range-bound as investors eyed upcoming upgrades (e.g. the Fusaka upgrade) and continued institutional demand.
• Regulatory moves: The SEC accelerated crypto ETF approvals (e.g. Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund) even as President Trump’s talk of tech tariffs (e.g. on TikTok and China-linked goods) added unease.
• DeFi/NFT innovations: Binance-backed ASTER token launched with a 1,650% surge and $371M first-day volume. MetaMask integrated HyperLiquid trading, and OpenSea announced its SEA token airdrop preloaded with ARB/NFT rewards.
• Crypto adoption: Corporates kept buying: Japan’s Metaplanet added 5,419 BTC (~$630M) this week. Major ETH funds and treasuries (e.g. Arbi Capital, Galaxy) continue accumulating ETH. Meanwhile, MiCA regulations in Europe move toward full enforcement.

Weekly Deep Dive

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin traded mostly between $107K–$117K, consolidating in the aftermath of Friday’s drawdown. Technical indicators were mixed: the RSI sat in the mid-50s (neutral) and MACD barely turned positive, reflecting indecision. Short-term support rests around $107K (recent lows), while resistance lies near $116–117K (July highs). Notably, BTC briefly dipped below $115K around the Fed’s rate decision but quickly rebounded off the 200-day moving average. A sustained break above $117K would confirm bullish momentum, whereas a drop below $107K could trigger another leg of selling.

After the pullback, on-chain data shows continued accumulation. Institutions remain active: Japan’s Metaplanet just purchased 5,419 BTC (~$630M). However, liquidations were high during the midweek sell-off (~$1.7B of longs, suggesting many leveraged traders were stopped out. Overall, BTC price analysis indicates a fragile uptrend: near-term momentum is capped, but major support held firm.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum traded in a tight band around $3,900–$4,100, looking tired after earlier Q3 gains. ETH hovered near its 50-day moving average (~$4,050) and below the 20-day average (~$4,386). The RSI is ~34 (oversold territory), hinting at a potential bounce. Key support sits around $3,950; resistance lies at $4,400–$4,500. A break below $3,950 could open a slide to the $3,600 region, whereas reclaiming $4,100 might retest $4,500.

Ethereum’s fundamentals were mixed. Long-term holders stayed bullish: whales moved large amounts (e.g. 200k ETH ~ $785M) into exchanges, possibly for profit, but major funds (Galaxy, FalconX) accumulated 406,117 ETH (~$1.6B) on dips. Notably, SWIFT launched a real-time gross settlement pilot on an ETH Layer-2 (Linea) with major banks, highlighting demand for ETH usage. Overall, technicals are bearish-short-term (oversold), but improving ETF flows and network upgrades (Fusaka) could catalyze a recovery.

Solana (SOL)

Solana held above its critical pivot of $194–$195 despite a midweek dip from ~$244 to ~$234. Technically, SOL’s 50-day MA (~$191.5) remains above the 200-day MA (~$159.9), a bullish “golden cross” indicating medium-term strength. The RSI (~64) and MACD are neutral to bullish. Immediate resistance is near $209; support is at the $194 pivot. A breach below $194 could trigger a deeper pullback toward the ~$117–$125 zone. (That lower zone has held several times this year).

On-chain metrics are constructive: Solana’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is improving with 344M active addresses on the network. However, profit-taking was evident: wallets moved ~$17.45M SOL to exchanges in Sept (likely selling) vs. only ~$2.7M of institutional purchases. In summary, Solana’s chart shows a bullish bias in the midterm, but near-term volatility is high. Investors should watch the $194 floor — if that holds, SOL may resume its run; if not, caution is warranted.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Dogecoin churned around $0.26–$0.28, testing the upper boundary of its range. DOGE repeatedly hit resistance at $0.285 without clear follow-through. The RSI (~56) is modestly bullish, and a MACD crossover occurred, suggesting upside potential. However, the Stochastic oscillator (~78) warns of short-term overbought conditions. Key support is near $0.26 (around the 50-day EMA).

Trading volumes spiked on Sept 17 during a brief 4% price jump, indicating strong interest, but DOGE faded late in the week. The launch of a Dogecoin ETF on Sept 12 pumped enthusiasm, and whales (like DeFi Luna) added to their holdings – e.g. 2 billion DOGE acquired in August. Still, DOGE’s inflationary supply (5.2B new coins/year) and rising competition from new memecoins pose risks. Overall, Dogecoin’s technical setup is cautiously bullish, but a sustained move above $0.29 is needed to signal a real breakout.

Table 1: Weekly price and volume highlights.

Fundamental Analysis

ETF Flows & Adoption:

After weeks of inflows, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $902.5M net outflows , driven by $418M leaving on Friday alone. Fidelity’s FBTC bore the brunt (~$300M). Ethereum has no ETF yet, but Grayscale’s new Digital Large Cap Fund (ETH + other top tokens) got the green light. Corporate buyers remained active: we noted Metaplanet’s 5,419 BTC purchase and news that public miners (BitMine, EtherMachine) plus asset managers (FG Nexus) expanded ETH treasuries. Overall, big investors are using dips to accumulate bitcoin and ethereum, cushioning the downturn.

Regulation & Policy: 

U.S. regulators are loosening some rules while tightening others. The SEC fast-tracked several spot ETF applications, even as Congress debated the CLARITY Act (crypto oversight). President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese tech goods (and talk of new crypto taxes) added a wildcard, briefly shaking risk assets. In Europe, the new MiCA rules are phasing in, requiring crypto firms to meet token standards by mid-2026. These shifts created uncertainty: for example, analysts note that simultaneous U.S./U.K. regulatory changes have left crypto protocols in limbo. In short, clearer rules are coming, but in the short term they add volatility.

Partnerships & Upgrades: 

Major platforms kept innovating. MetaMask now supports HyperLiquid’s perpetual trading, broadening DEX usage. Base network teased a possible native token. Layer-2s also advanced: Arbitrum’s “Atlas” upgrade (target Q4) will slash fees, and Chainlink PoR (proof-of-reserves) was integrated into Bitcoin/ETH ETFs on Arbitrum. NFT ecosystems expanded too: OpenSea’s SEA token vault includes over $1M in ARB rewards, tying DeFi tokens to NFT platforms. Meanwhile, DeFi protocols patched security holes post-hack: for example, after a multi-sig exploit, UXLINK re-launched on a new contract to restore trust.

Sentiment Analysis

Cryptocurrency sentiment swung from fear to cautious optimism. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged into the high 20s (extreme fear) after the Sept 22 sell-off, then rebounded into the high-30s by week’s end, reflecting lingering caution. Social media buzz hit multi-month highs: chatter about rate cuts, ETFs, and memecoins surged on Twitter and Reddit. DOGE rallies and NFT drops sparked viral hype (Reddit and X were abuzz with memes). Analysts remain split: some see the low sentiment as a buying opportunity, while others warn that social-media-driven FOMO can reverse fast. In short, “greed” is returning slowly, but the market is still jittery.

Key sentiment metrics (week of Sept 22–29): Fear & Greed at ~37 (“fear” zone) vs. 28 last week. Social media activity (crypto tweets, TikTok crypto videos) saw a ~15% increase. Analyst consensus turned slightly neutral/bullish, up from broadly bearish prior, as many now expect Fed easing to benefit crypto.

Table 2: Crypto sentiment metrics

Technology & Upgrades

Layer-2 & Scalability:

 Ethereum’s roadmap is on track. The Fusaka upgrade (Dec 3, 2025) will raise block gas limits from 45M to 150M, easing congestion. Arbitrum is also gearing up: its upcoming “Atlas” upgrade will significantly lower L2 fees. Other Layer-2s (zkSync, Starknet, Optimism) launched new testnets and zk-rollup improvements this week. Notably, Chainlink’s on-chain proofs were deployed for Bitcoin/ETH ETFs on Arbitrum, enhancing transparency of large reserve funds.

Security incidents: 

The week saw a major DeFi exploit. UXLINK’s multi-sig vulnerability was hacked, allowing minting of tokens and a 70% price crash. The attacker swapped 1,620 ETH for 6.73M DAI, dramatically shaking liquidity. This incident underscored persistent risks (poor audits, phishing) and the need for better security. Aside from UXLINK, no new exploits of similar scale were reported, but industry data shows August’s crypto hacks totaled ~$163M in losses. In response, many DeFi protocols have audited code and strengthened safeguards post-attack.

DeFi & NFT: 

The DeFi and NFT ecosystems remained dynamic. OpenSea’s SEA NFT airdrop included large ARB allocations, reflecting NFT-L2 synergy. TVL in major DeFi protocols (Aave, Maker, Curve) was mostly flat, as traders rebalanced after recent market moves. Airdrops and new tokens (e.g. Aster on Binance Smart Chain) drove short-term volume, but sustainable usage metrics (like staking participation) stayed muted. In NFTs, trading volume was subdued relative to last year’s boom, though flagship projects (like Bored Apes and CryptoPunks) held steady floor prices.

Fortuna AI Insights

Forvest Fortuna’s AI models flagged key opportunities this week. For technical traders, Fortuna’s analytics gave Bitcoin a ~60% probability of regaining its short-term uptrend, highlighting the RSI oversold bounce and 200-day support. It also issued buy alerts around $107–$108K on BTC pullbacks, which indeed caught last Tuesday’s low. For Ethereum, Fortuna noted the RLoe (Realized Loss metric) bottoming and predicted a 50-50 chance of a rebound above $4,300 by next week, reflecting its mixed signal. On fundamentals, Fortuna’s sentiment module spotted rising social chatter and ETF inflow rumors as bullish signals for SOL and DOGE, although it cautioned that over 1M new DOGE inflows could dilute returns.

To novice readers: Fortuna saw crypto fear near a bottom late Friday and suggested adding to positions. It was generally bullish on Bitcoin and Solana rebounds after the pullback, but warned ETH was “only cool, not on fire” until it cleared $4,400. The AI’s short-term price forecasts have been 40–50% accurate so far; this week’s signals aligned well with actual moves (BTC did find support, DOGE’s surge moderated). Overall, Fortuna’s layered analysis (technical probabilities + simplified alerts) reinforced what human traders saw: crypto was oversold and due for a bounce, barring major policy shocks.

Weekly Outlook (Sept 29–Oct 6, 2025)

Looking ahead, key price levels loom. Bitcoin must hold $107K–$110K or risk a deeper pullback; a sustained move above $117K would restore bullish momentum. Ethereum faces a near-term pivot at $4,500 (strong support) with major resistance at $4,800. Watch also Solana’s $194 floor and Doge’s $0.26–$0.29 zone.

On the macro/regulatory front, traders will eye the upcoming Fed minutes (Oct 2) for policy clues. In crypto, major events include the SEC’s expected decisions on multiple altcoin ETF applications in early October (Solana, XRP, Doge, etc). Any news on these could jolt sentiment. Other catalysts: Ethereum’s Muir Glacier hard fork testnet, a new NFT game launch, and continued stablecoin adoption in emerging markets.

What this means for investors next week:

Markets may see choppy trading, so risk managers should use key support levels as stop-loss guides. A bounce off tech levels (BTC $107K, ETH $4.5K) could be a buying zone. However, if regulators surprise with stricter rules or if macro data alarms, “risk-off” could resume quickly. Keep watch on ETF filings and memecoin trends as short-term sentiment drivers.

Conclusion

This week’s crypto market was a stress test: Bitcoin and others weathered regulatory churn and profit-taking by major holders. Key takeaways: ETF flows matter most – the large BTC outflows dampened gains, even as ETH and Solana remained buoyed by upcoming upgrades and institutional bets. Sentiment swung from panic back toward optimism, underscoring crypto’s volatile nature. Our view: modest optimism. The tailwinds of easing U.S. monetary policy and growing crypto adoption are real, but investors should stay nimble as regulation and global macro events could quickly spoil rallies. For real-time AI-powered alerts, follow Forvest Fortuna.

Author Bio:

The Forvest Research Team consists of data-driven cryptocurrency analysts and strategists. Leveraging on-chain analytics and AI forecasting, they deliver in-depth market recaps, technical/fundamental analysis, and insights to guide institutional and retail crypto investors.

By Forvest Research Team
Reviewed by Forvest Research Team — September 30, 2025