Weekly Crypto News and Analysis

Bitcoin held above $100K amid ETF outflows. Meanwhile, Ethereum steadied near $3,600 on institutional dip-buying. Solana’s first U.S. spot ETFs launched with record inflows, and XRP led with a 6% surge, signaling fresh rotation.

Forvest Take:

The market is stabilizing under macro pressure—less hype, more structure.

Market Overview — A Pause with Purpose

The first full week of November was sideways yet constructive. After October’s turbulence, volatility compressed to multi-year lows. As a result, Bitcoin’s consolidation around the psychological $100,000 mark became the week’s anchor.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone—despite last month’s rate cut—cooled hopes for rapid easing. Combined with the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, sentiment turned defensive across equities and digital assets. Even so, breadth improved:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Flat WoW; six-figure floor defended.

• Ethereum (ETH): ~–2.5%; relative resilience.

• Solana (SOL): ~–4%; post-ETF “sell-the-news.”

• XRP: +6%; ETF-driven strength.

Overall, risk appetite was subdued but disciplined—more consolidation than capitulation.

Bitcoin (BTC) — The 0K Line in the Sand

After an intraday dip just below $100K on Nov 4, buyers stepped in. For now, the $100K–$108K range remains critical.

Technically, BTC is coiling for a decisive move. Bollinger Bands are the tightest since mid-2023, while daily RSI ≈ 47. Historically, similar squeezes preceded major breakouts within two to three weeks.

Key drivers behind the consolidation (this week):

• However hawkish, the Fed’s guidance followed a cut—mixed signals.

• $946M outflows from U.S. BTC ETFs (largest in ~5 months).

• Rotation toward alts with catalysts (ETH, SOL, XRP).

• Continued whale accumulation; no abnormal exchange inflows.

Some analysts call this “constructive fatigue.” Notably, JPMorgan’s fair-value work implies BTC may be ~25% undervalued, leaving room toward $125K–$130K once volatility expands.

You can monitor the latest risk-adjusted sentiment in our Bitcoin Trust Score tracker.

Table 1 — Core Technical Zones (Condensed)

Why it matters: tightly defined risk zones often precede a volatility reset.

Ethereum (ETH) — Accumulation in Motion

ETH mirrored BTC’s structure yet showed stronger fundamentals. After a quick drop to ~$3,500, price stabilized around $3,600. Admittedly, a “death cross” (20/50-day MAs) keeps near-term momentum soft. Even so, institutions kept buying.

According to weekly fund data, ETH products posted +$57.6M inflows while BTC saw heavy redemptions. On-chain, wallets with >1,000 ETH reportedly added ~1.6M ETH during October—consistent with accumulation.

Why this matters: ETH is both a growth platform (DeFi, NFTs, L2s) and a yield asset via staking. Roughly ~22% of supply remains staked, which reduces active float and helps dampen drawdowns.

Yes, DeFi security headlines dented confidence—Balancer (~$110M) and Stream Finance (~$93M). Nevertheless, ETH recovered quickly. Therefore, the underlying bid looks intact.

Forvest Take:

Long-horizon accumulation continues to offset tactical fear. Into Q4, ETH screens as one of the steadier majors—provided $3.5K holds and $3.9K–$4.0K is reclaimed in time.

Solana (SOL) — From Euphoria to Reality

Solana dominated headlines as the first U.S. spot ETFs went live (Bitwise BSOL; Grayscale GSOL conversion). Combined inflows exceeded $421M, the second-largest on record for a non-BTC crypto product.

However, price action followed a classic pattern: “buy the rumor, sell the news.” SOL slid from ~$190 toward ~$155 as early longs took profits. Importantly, this mirrored Bitcoin’s ETF debut earlier in 2025—soft initially, stronger later as flows compound.

Technically, $155 aligns with the 100-day MA and a prior liquidity shelf. Below, $126 is the key higher-timeframe support. On the upside, $179 is the first reclaim level; above that, $200 unlocks better momentum.

Positive fundamentals remain:

• Network uptime 100% since the August upgrade.

• Active users +14% MoM in Q3.

• Institutional AUM in SOL products +37% YTD.

Forvest Take:

ETF approval validates SOL as an institutional asset. Short-term profit-taking aside, rising on-chain activity and product inflows keep SOL a high-beta recovery candidate once risk turns.

Ripple (XRP) — ETF Buzz Reignites the Bulls

XRP finally broke its long-standing $2.35 ceiling and printed $2.43, the highest level in over five years. The catalyst was the listing of five spot ETFs on DTCC, which effectively signaled readiness for launch.

Volumes rose ~169% above average—evidence of real demand. Consequently, traders now watch $2.50–$2.80 as the next resistance zone, while $2.39 flips to strong support.

Forvest Take:

With regulatory momentum and a clean breakout, XRP became the week’s standout. As long as price holds above $2.39–$2.40, the path toward $2.70–$2.80 remains open.

Table 2 — Weekly ETF Flows (Condensed)

Bottom line: BTC redemptions financed rotation into alts with live catalysts.

Market Psychology — Quiet Confidence

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index ≈ 48, which is neutral leaning positive. Open interest in BTC futures eased. By contrast, ETH and SOL saw new longs, albeit measured. In addition, 1-month BTC implied vol dropped toward ~28%, a one-year low. Historically, such calm precedes larger moves.

On social data, #SOLetf و #XRPETF trended on X (Twitter). Moreover, mentions of “crypto rotation” rose ~32% WoW (LunarCrush). Meanwhile, retail inflows into “energy-style” altcoins increased ~11% per Forvest Analytics.

Forvest Take:

Retail remains cautious yet engaged; institutions are buying structure, not hype. Typically, this combination builds the foundation for sustainable Q4 rallies.

Macro & Liquidity Context — Snapshot + Narrative

Quick Snapshot:

• U.S. 10-year yield: ~4.1% (easing pressure on risk).

• DXY: ~100.2 (highest since August).

• Gold: ~$2,030 (mild risk-aversion).

• Equities: S&P 500 flat; Nasdaq –0.4%.
  Crypto–yields correlation remains tight (~0.7). Therefore, as Treasury yields ease, liquidity typically returns faster to high-beta names like SOL and ETH.

Narrative:
In the U.S., inflation kept cooling: CPI +0.3% MoM and core PCE +0.2% MoM. Consequently, the 10-year yield drifted toward 4.1%, improving financial conditions after October’s stress.

At the same time, China turned supportive again. The PBoC injected roughly ¥800B via MLF, while Beijing accelerated local-government bond issuance for infrastructure. As a result، credit stabilized and commodities such as copper and crude firmed—both increasingly correlated with crypto risk cycles.

Meanwhile, the dollar hovered near 100. Although it reflects a tug-of-war between safety bids and rate-cut bets, a softer USD often supports both gold and crypto. Indeed, gold’s firmness around $2,030/oz echoed BTC’s defense of $100K: when real yields flatten, investors rotate toward scarce real or digital assets.

Forvest Take:

Liquidity turned mildly positive. If inflation continues to moderate and fiscal taps stay open, cross-asset correlations suggest crypto can regain momentum as sentiment steadies.

Forvest Takeaway

• Volatility tightened; liquidity rotated.

• Institutions preferred ETH و SOL.

• $100K remains BTC’s anchor risk level.

• ETF innovation keeps widening market depth.

Cross-Market Dynamics, Liquidity Trends & Forward Scenarios

The macro environment continued to steer crypto sentiment. After the Fed’s cautious remarks, U.S. Treasury yields softened and the dollar stabilized near 100 (DXY). These shifts tightened cross-market linkages.

• Equities ↔ Crypto: The 30-day correlation rebounded to +0.58, as risk-on rallies in cyclicals supported mid-cap alts.

• Bonds ↔ Crypto: Lower yields improved liquidity perception; both BTC and ETH recovered intraday after the 10-year yield dipped below 4.1%.

• Commodities ↔ Crypto: Oil’s modest +3% rise reflected China’s new stimulus; similar optimism lifted metals and tokenized-commodity narratives.

Forvest Take:

Crypto is again behaving like a macro asset class—sensitive to real yields, dollar moves, and global liquidity expectations.

Table 3 — Condensed Cross-Asset Snapshot

Fund Flows & Institutional Positioning — Quiet Rotation

Flows this week signaled rotation, not retreat.
Digital-asset funds saw –$360M net outflows, mainly from Bitcoin profit-taking, while altcoin products gained +$585M — led by Solana and XRP.

Regional split:
U.S. funds stayed cautious (–$439M), but Europe (+$63M) and Asia — especially Singapore and Hong Kong — added exposure through regulated altcoin ETFs. The contrast shows growing comfort with crypto as part of a broader macro allocation.

Institutions are favoring a “barbell allocation”: long-duration bonds for safety, paired with selective crypto positions in ETH, SOL, and XRP. This rotation mirrors a shift away from crowded AI equities toward more balanced, liquidity-sensitive assets.

Meanwhile, sovereign funds such as GIC (Singapore) and ADIA (Abu Dhabi) quietly expanded pilot allocations into tokenized bonds and crypto ETFs — a clear sign of digital assets entering real institutional portfolios.

Forvest Take:

Global capital is repositioning under the surface.
While U.S. investors wait for clarity, Europe and Asia are accumulating on weakness — a pattern that often precedes the next risk-on cycle.

Investor Sentiment — Quiet Confidence Builds

Behavioral data confirm a steady hand rather than panic:

• Fear & Greed Index: ~48 (neutral).

• Retail inflows: +2.8% WoW, mainly into ETH and SOL products.

• Derivatives volume: –9%, reflecting hedge unwinds post-liquidation.

• VIX ≈ 15 / BTC implied vol ≈ 28% — historically low risk pricing.

Social metrics also improved: the Forvest AI Sentiment Index ticked up to 54/100 as mentions of “soft landing” and “ETF rotation” rose.
Interpretation: Traders aren’t euphoric, but they’re comfortable—ideal conditions for accumulation phases.

See how on-chain and behavioral confidence scores evolve weekly in our Crypto Trust Score Dashboard.

Quant & Technical Signals — Volatility Compression Phase

Forvest Quant models continue to flag volatility compression across major assets, paired with improving flow momentum in ETH and SOL.
Bitcoin’s volatility index sits near 27%, its lowest since mid-2023 — a level that has historically preceded 5–8% directional moves within two weeks.

Technical checkpoints remain clearly defined:

• BTC: Needs a daily close above $108K to confirm bullish continuation.

• ETH: Breakout above $3.9K opens room toward $4.2K.

• SOL: Recovery above $179 could trigger a move into the $200–220 range.

• XRP: Holding above $2.40 keeps the $2.80 target valid.

The convergence of low volatility, steady inflows, and narrowing yield spreads suggests a coiled market poised for release.

Forvest Take:

Volatility has fallen to unsustainable lows. When macro liquidity steadies, compression tends to flip into expansion — and this setup looks ready for that transition.

Macro Narrative — Why Rates Still Matter

The Fed’s October cut was followed by hawkish language, yet markets didn’t buy it. Fed-funds futures now imply no hikes through mid-2026 and a first rate cut by March.
Each basis-point drop in real yields tends to add roughly 1% to BTC’s short-term (3-day) return, based on the Forvest macro correlation model.

Implications:

• Falling real yields → crypto tailwind.

• Dollar strength → short-term headwind for alts.

• Stable oil and gold → neutral risk backdrop.

Major economies are quietly coordinating a shift toward looser liquidity.
In the U.S., falling real yields after the Fed’s October cut support Bitcoin’s “digital gold” appeal.
China’s fiscal expansion continues to lift commodities and, indirectly, crypto sentiment.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s steady policy and improved Eurozone credit flow help stabilize global markets.

Together, these signals mark the early phase of a synchronized easing cycle — a backdrop that historically fuels risk assets.
When yields flatten and fiscal spending rises, capital tends to migrate toward scarce, liquid assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

Forvest Take:

Macro policy alignment is now the hidden tailwind for digital assets, quietly rebuilding the foundation for the next liquidity upcycle.

Forward Scenarios — Q4 Pathways

Bullish Case

• CPI remains benign (< +0.3% MoM).

• ETF inflows resume (> $500M weekly).

• BTC breaks $108K → $120K by December.

• ETH ≈ $4,200 / SOL > $200 / XRP ≈ $2.8.

Base Case

• Sideways Q4 with gradual rotation into alts.

• BTC range $100K–$112K; ETH holds $3.5–$4.0K.

• ETF flows neutral; institutions steady buyers.

Bearish Case

• Hot inflation revives hawkish tone.

• BTC dips below $100K → $85–88K zone.

• Temporary liquidity squeeze in alts.

Forvest Take:

The base case dominates — slow re-accumulation ahead of a potential holiday-season rally.

Get notified when our models detect breakout conditions — activate custom market alerts here.

Strategic Themes to Watch

• ETF Diffusion: Solana’s success opens the door for XRP, ADA, and DOT ETF products.

• Institutional Migration: Traditional funds testing multi-asset crypto baskets.

• AI × Blockchain Convergence: Capital flow into data-tokenization projects.

• Staking Economics: ETH validator yields ≈ 4.2% APR attract capital from idle BTC ETFs.

• Regulatory Timeline: With the SEC shutdown ending mid-Nov, batch ETF approvals are expected within 30 days.

Forvest Summary Blocks

Bullish Signals
✔ Soft inflation / yields easing
✔ ETH & SOL institutional buying
✔ XRP ETF listings sustain momentum

Bearish Signals
✖ BTC ETF outflows > $900M
✖ Macro uncertainty (USD rally / shutdown)
✖ DeFi security incidents pressure sentiment

Playbook (Informational Only)
→ Favor ETH & SOL for alpha exposure.
→ Maintain duration tilt via bond ETFs.
→ Track USD & real yields as crypto-beta guides.

“For a deeper dive into risk positioning and capital protection, visit our Crypto Investment Risk — The Complete Guide.

Compression Before Expansion

This week marks a clear inflection: speculative frenzy has yielded to strategic accumulation. The confluence of ETF innovation, macro stability, and volatility compression sets the stage for the next leg of crypto’s cycle.

If history rhymes, this quiet phase will be remembered as the foundation of 2026’s bull wave.

Forvest Take:

Crypto’s resilience is no longer narrative—it’s data-driven. Investors are rotating from hype to structure, and that’s exactly how long cycles begin.

2026 Outlook — What Comes After Compression

The late-2025 consolidation has laid the groundwork for a more mature crypto cycle in 2026.
Bitcoin is evolving into a true macro asset — a “digital gold” integrated into global portfolios via ETFs now holding over $650B in combined AUM. If real yields continue to ease, BTC could revisit the $140K–$150K range by midyear.

Ethereum remains the structural outperformer. Its staking yield (~4.2% APR) and expanding Layer-2 adoption make it increasingly comparable to fixed-income and tech-growth hybrids.
Solana, boosted by its ETF debut and growing institutional flows, is positioned as the high-beta play of this cycle.

Macro conditions are also turning friendlier: China’s fiscal expansion, Europe’s policy stability, and lower U.S. yields all point toward a gradual liquidity recovery.

Forvest Take:

2026 is shaping up to be a year of transition — from speculation to structure. Liquidity, institutional design, and ETF diffusion will drive the next leg, not hype.